A couple of week’s ago I knocked up this graph with my predictions for the upcoming NZ election. It took around two minutes to compile, and I am pleased to report that my predictions are coming along nicely.
I made this graph shortly before Metiria Turei resigned from the Greens, but shortly after she had admitted to benefit fraud. There is nothing less generous than a penurious public – her fate was sealed the moment she opened her mouth.
My Mum pointed out that Peter Dunne doesn’t appear on my graph – there’s a good reason for this, as was made clear yesterday when he resigned from United Future.
Dunne’s fate was sealed the moment he started vacillating on cannabis reform quite some time ago. You can’t support a scientific approach to cannabis and then continue to support its continued criminalisation. All politicians hold prejudices but the clever ones don’t discuss them in terms of rational decision making. If you appear to be thinking about something people will not vote for you. This is how dogmatism works. Pick a line and stick to it – we’re busy people!
Finally, you’ll note the The Opportunities Party (TOP) is doing quite well on my graph.
As I said on its inception, this party is a real threat to the status quo, as evidenced by the poisonous and at times insane smearing that is coming its way.
In the last couple of days Gareth Morgan’s party has been accused of;
– being anti-neoliberal pretenders, because they’ve said they’re ‘against the establishment status quo’. New parties are by definition, against the establishment, but the headline; ‘New TOP Party Describes Itself as New’ doesn’t work so well.
– being underpinned by some radical economic theory (it’s not).
– discussing ‘economic theory’ instead of Important Political Matters (Jacinda’s expertly wound chignon, OMG I bet it even smells nice). It’s worth noting here that governments don’t systematically underfund education so that the population can have educated discussions about economic theory – (c.f; Jacinda’s expertly wound chignon).
– stealing Labour’s vote
– stealing National’s vote
– stealing the Green vote
– being headed up by a rich white man who once lamented that only the rich could enter politics and he’d therefore decided to spend his money entering politics.
– see ‘rich white man’ above
– calling ALL WOMEN PIGS IN LIPSTICK #lipstickonapig #pussygrabsback #paleandstale #triggeralert #easilymanipulatedwomenunwittinglyco-optedintopoliticalsmearcampaign #fuckingdeadshits
– hating cats
– 1070 good, 1080 better. Something like that anyway.
– something about not being pretty and/or a celebrity.
– not having enough hair for an expertly wound chignon
So, that’s TOP dealt with.
When I made my graph I predicted that it would reflect the results within 2% for each party.
Here are my results compared to Colmar Brunton’s on the 17th of August
CB – 4.3
Me – 6.1
CB – 37
Me – 37.7
CB – 44
Me – 40
CB – 10
Me – 9.4
CB – didn’t poll for them
Me – 8.9
My polling is based on a sample size of one, me. Most of me falls in the middle so I’ve decided I am normally distributed. This is reflected in my correspondingly low margin of error. Prove me wrong. If you find that logic confronting, here;